Simulation of Biocapacity and Spatial-Temporal Evolution Analysis of Loess Plateau in Northern Shaanxi Based on the CA–Markov Model

Biocapacity evaluation is an important part of sustainable development research, but quantitative and spatial future scenario analysis still have model methodological difficulties. Based on the high-resolution Globeland30 dataset, authors analyzed characteristics land use/cover changes Loess Plateau in Northern Shaanxi from 2000 to 2020. Then, comprehensively considering driving factors social development, topography, climatic conditions, distance, logistic regression method CA–Markov were used simulate use 2030. Finally, biocapacity was describe distribution spatial-temporal evolution regional detail. The results showed following: (1) jointly restricted by types, yield factors, equivalence factors. high values mainly distributed riparian areas central eastern regions, ridges valleys western farmland patches southern valleys; median forest mountains; low grassland unused hilly gully northern regions. (2) increased 9.98% 2010, decreased 4.14% 2010 2020, total amount remained stable. It predicted that 2030, will continue increase 0.03%, reaching 16.52 × 106 gha.